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What's Next: Top Trends | Diary of an accidental futurist – observations on current & future trends What's Next: Top Trends Diary of an accidental futurist – observations on current & future trends Skip to content Home About this blog ← Older posts A pandemic predicted as a high probability event in 2020 Posted on July 13, 2020 by Richard I think this was published in 2014. Click on this link to download a high resolution image. https://nowandnext.com/PDF/Trends%20&%20Technologies%20for%20the%20World%20in%202020.pdf Posted in Pandemic risks , Predictions | Leave a comment x Posted on July 10, 2020 by Richard Posted in Ideas , Innovation , Uncategorized | Leave a comment One of the best bar charts of all time Posted on July 9, 2020 by Richard The Covid-19 line is dreadful, but I actually think the suicide line is worse in some senses. Posted in Coronavirus , Data visualisation , information design , Maps , Risks , Stats , Thinking | 2 Comments A Corona Chronology (the movie) Posted on June 16, 2020 by Richard The movie…. Posted in Pandemic risks , Uncategorized | Leave a comment A Corona Chronology Posted on May 6, 2020 by Richard A Corona Chronology (desired) 96 Normal 0 false false false EN-GB X-NONE X-NONE A timeline for Corona (Covid-19). I must stress that this is not what I think will happen, but rather what I would like to happen. And it will happen if enough people wish it so. One axis is time. The other is empowerment (+/-), although I suppose it could also be an optimism/pessimism axis. The running order is; the great fear, the great lockdown, the great retreat, the great slowdown, the great loosening, the great reconnection, the great realisation, the great rebellion, the great rebirth, and the great regeneration. Spin offs are the great alone, the great stillness, the great simplification, the great silence, the great rewilding and the great escape. Where did this come from? The writer Aifric Campbell mentioned a “loosening” to me. I then watched The Great Realisation by the poet Tomos Roberts and then I listened to a talk online by a colour forecaster called Anna Starmer. All these streams met in my subconscious last night and hey presto, quite a good doodle. Why on a wall? Why not. Big ideas need big spaces.. The writing is on the wall. Maybe we need some colour? BTW, one thing one might add would be The Great Depression, but hopefully not. I’d also think of adding Rise of the Humans somewhere too. Always remember, the future will be whatever enough people want it to be. Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments Present Tense Posted on May 4, 2020 by Richard Be right here, right now Rather a lovely review about what I’m up to nowadays. From QZ.com in the US. Read here. Posted in Thinking , Thinking spaces | Leave a comment Corona is not a Black Swan Event Posted on March 14, 2020 by Richard Bank scenarios from 2005 There is a narrative slowly emerging that Corona (Covid-19) is a true Black swan event. For example, according to Fred Cleary, a portfolio manager at Pegasus Capital, quoted in the FT’s excellent Long View Column, “Covid-19 is a black swan”. I could be wrong, but from recollection of reading the book, a Black Swan event is something that people cannot possibly imagine and therefore cannot possibly predict. 9/11 was a Black Swan event. Corona virus is not. In scenario-speak it is a wild card event that breaks all scenarios, but this is most definately not something that has not been foreseen. I worked with an Australian bank back in 2005 and a pandemic was on the table so to speak. It was one of the main topics of a UK government risk workshop in 2015 (by main topic I mean it was one of the events considered most probable (when not if as they say), it featured in some strategic trends work with the UK Ministry of Defence too (again, as a strategic shock), in some library scenarios, some work for KPMG and finally some disruption cards created with Imperial College. The problem, of course, is not predicting, forecasting or foreseeing, but in assigning probability to such events or ideas. If the probability is widely considered to be low it will be largely ignored. It also touches on not what, but whom, in the sense of who gets listened to, why and when. BTW, is this is all a bit doom and gloom, my view is that the current pandemic is quite mild in terms of mortality. This too will pass, although next time we may not be so lucky. From the Bookends Scenarios (PLNSW) 2010 KPMG cards circa 2012 Imperial Disruption cards 2018 – note linkages between cards Posted in Pandemic risks , Predictions , Risks , Scenario Planning , Scenarios , X-Risks | Tagged black swans , corona virus , covid-19 | 3 Comments Quote of the week Posted on March 13, 2020 by Richard “No plan of operations reaches with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main force” (Helmuth von Moltke, Prussina military commander, 1880). Or another version…. “Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth” (Mike Tyson, former World Heavyweight boxing champion). Posted in Forecasts & forecasting , Foresight , Planning , Quotes , Strategic foresight , Strategic thinking , Strategy | Leave a comment The scream (redux) Posted on March 12, 2020 by Richard Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment No touching Posted on March 11, 2020 by Richard Is this the future? OK, two scenarios in light of Coronavirus and the current outbreak of anxiety. Scenario one: Social distancing becomes the norm. People avoid people. People don’t trust people. People trust machines and prefer their company. A society-wide deletion of the human interface (currently to be seen emerging in banks and supermarkets across the UK and elsewhere). People work from home, consume at home and essentially keep their mental front doors closed to things they don’t like. Contact with nature is lost, so too is curiosity about other people. The triumph of the digitally empowered individual. Scenario two: Self isolation turns out to be a blessing disguised in a face mask. People re-discover the joys of solitude. The cult of productivity and competitive busyness is called into question. People find joy in simple things. People slowly realise they need other people. People question what makes them truly happy and it turns out the answer is other people and especially helping strangers. There is an outbreak of empathy and kindness and a societal shift from ‘me’ to ‘we’. Civic responsibility and societal good trumps individual rights and freedoms. Posted in Anxiety , Scenarios | Tagged corona virus | Leave a comment ← Older posts &homtht Established in 2004 &homtht My latest book Buy from Amazon.co.uk Search for: Archives July 2020 June 2020 May 2020 March 2020 February 2020 January 2020 December 2019 November 2019 October 2019 September 2019 August 2019 July 2019 June 2019 May 2019 April 2019 March 2019 February 2019 January 2019 December 2018 November 2018 October 2018 September 2018 August 2018 July 2018 June 2018 May 2018 April 2018 March 2018 February 2018 January 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 April 2017 March 2017 February 2017 January 2017 December 2016 November 2016 October 2016 September 2016 August 2016 July 2016 June 2016 May 2016 April 2016 March 2016 February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 November 2015 October 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 May 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 February 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 Septe...